МОСКВА, 02 августа 2021, Институт РУССТРАТ. Germany is today on the verge of serious changes. There is an active discussion in German society about the upcoming election — the future of not only Germany, but also the entire European Union largely depends on it. We spoke with the famous German political scientist and international journalist Alexander Rahr about who will determine the political discourse of one of the most prosperous countries of the European continent, and about other topical issues of the European continent.
- The electoral campaign is gaining momentum in Germany. To what extent, in your opinion, can we believe the statements made by the candidates? Do they correspond to the mood in society? - In my opinion, the main intrigue is whether the current German Chancellor and her team will be able to maintain a leading role in the socio-political life of the country or whether significant changes in domestic and foreign policy await us. On the one hand, Merkel is an absolute political heavyweight. She ruled the country for 16 years, and it is difficult to replace her. But, on the other hand, a desire for change has formed in German society and this is an obvious fact that cannot be ignored. The leader of Germany automatically becomes the leader of Europe. Today we have accumulated a lot of problems, and they need to be solved immediately. It should be borne in mind that in Germany they choose not so much a person (although, of course, personality is also important), but directly a party. The Chancellor is not directly determined — this is the work of the parliament. So much depends on how powerful a political force a particular leader represents. According to recent polls, the Christian Democratic Union led by Armin Laschet, the Prime Minister of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, is currently in the lead. This is a serious politician, he has gone through a difficult path of fighting with other candidates for this post. According to all polls, the CDU now receives about 30% of the support of voters. The Green Party is in second place — it has 20%. Unless some extraordinary events happen, Laschet will become Chancellor and will be able to form a coalition in the Bundestag. - The media regard the last meeting of Angela Merkel with Biden as an attempt to open the way for Europeans to "Nord Stream 2". How much can we believe the promises of the Americans not to hinder the construction of the gas pipeline? - I think that we can still trust the words of the US president. Today, it is extremely important for the administration of Mr. Biden to agree with Germany on all strategic issues, because Germany is his main ally in Europe. But there are a lot of problems. This includes the situation in the Middle East, "friendship" against China, climate change and so on, so on, so on. These tasks would not be possible to solve if the Americans imposed sanctions against the German company that sponsors Nord Stream 2. But the question arises: who will pay for Ukraine, which needs money for the transit of Russian gas through its territory? So far, Russia is paying. In the event that gas stops going through Ukraine, the Zelensky administration will lose powerful financial support. Germany promised the United States to help Ukraine. - Recently, relations between Russia and Germany have become much more complicated. The so-called "Petersburg Dialogue" is on the verge of collapse. What is the reason? - I would even say that the dialogue you mentioned has already died. In my opinion, the following is happening: the German liberal elites, non-governmental organisations, the media, and strategic institutions are hostile to Russia. They insist that you can only talk to Russia in the language of threats and uncompromising struggle. And although our countries traditionally have close trade, economic, social and cultural ties, only the problems of human rights and liberal values are brought up for discussion. Russia refuses to talk about this in the form that has existed for the last 20-30 years. German non-governmental organisations supporting anti-government sentiments in Russian society were banned. This led to outrage in Germany. Russia wants to conduct a dialogue on issues of common interests, Germany-exclusively on problems of liberal values. This is the essence of the conflict. This is happening despite Nord Stream 2 and other forms of economic cooperation. In addition, it should be borne in mind that for Germany, first of all, relations with the United States and Eastern European countries are important. And there, politicians are mostly opposed to Russia. - If Mr. Laschet becomes Chancellor, can the situation change? - As far as I know and understand this politician, he is friendly towards Russia and wants to build a strategic partnership with it. The question is to what extent Mr. Laschet will be able to enlist the support of other political forces. He has serious opposition in the European Union, in the United States, and in Germany itself. In addition, the German press is opposed to rapprochement with Russia. - How do you see the development of relations between the European Union and Russia? Don't you think that the trends of recent years - Ukraine, Crimea - have already lost their relevance? - In my opinion, the European Parliament, as well as the Council of Europe, do not represent the interests of the majority of Europeans. They are interested in the ideas of the liberal elites who are now in power. And the elites are not always a society, so everything can change in Europe. I can already see that some Eastern European countries are dissatisfied with Brussels. There is a gap between the West and the East of Europe. It is not yet clear what it will become in 10-15 years. - Germany is in 12th place in the world for the number of cases of covid. Unlike their French colleagues, Germany is not going to introduce mandatory vaccination for the population. What is the secret of a successful fight against the pandemic? - Germany has the best healthcare in the world. Citizens pay huge taxes on the maintenance of German medicine. It works efficiently, despite the pandemics. Although it is unknown whether this medical insurance system will cope with future epidemiological challenges. The liberal media fully supports the government regarding vaccination. Journalists promote vaccinations. The German people, who are law-abiding and trust the press, are scared. The Germans are disciplined, all wearing masks in public places. When there was a need for universal self-isolation, they obediently stayed at home and did not go for vacation. In Germany, the majority of critics of anti-covid measures are marginals. We tend to get vaccinated. Permission to vaccinate children from 12 to 18 years old is given by the Council of Doctors. This is the law. In the UK and Israel, children are actively vaccinated. In Germany, doctors do not give permission to vaccinate people under 20 years of age. The problem is that a new, fourth wave of infection is now beginning in Germany, and it is impossible to force young people to get vaccinated. It is also impossible to lock people in four walls, they are tired of it. The only hope is that at least 80% of the population will be vaccinated in the country. Now 50% of German residents are vaccinated. - How promising is the German-French alliance? - Germany and France have laid the foundation for the European Union. However, Europe is changing. There are many problems that did not exist before in the common union: values, finance, economics, society. France and Germany were strong together when they had a plan for the future of Europe. They wanted to create a United States of Europe, a union that would have its own government, army and joint defense policy. And Europe is still very far from this, serious disagreements prevent it. Europe cannot come to the concept of making decisions by majority vote, small countries are against it. Cyprus or Luxembourg can block the work of the European Union, veto any decision. - How can we resume good political relations between Moscow and Berlin? - This also depends on Russia - how much it needs this dialogue. Your country has been a European state since the time of Peter the Great. It should offer its own model, its own vision of European policy. What should Europeans do? First of all, stop teaching Russia democracy. We need to understand that Russia is developing in its own way, and is among the five largest economies in the world. It must be taken into account. Russia, unlike the European Union, plays a huge role in the Middle East, Asia and even Latin America. Therefore, Europe should start a dialogue based on mutually beneficial interests. - Your book about the history of Russian-European relations over the past 500 years has become a bestseller. It's called "2054", why? - Because in 1054 there was a break, a split between the Catholic and Orthodox churches. Europe was divided into two parts. Different legal and socio-political systems have appeared. These are two civilisations. I wanted to take the reader back to the time of Ivan the Terrible, when Russia entered Europe as a new power. It was an important historical period that influenced the future. It is necessary to see the roots of misunderstanding. Only then will we be able to understand how to solve today's problems, and what the Europe of tomorrow will be like.
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